The first major election since Abe took over as prime minister, this coming Upper House Election could not have come at a worse time for the prime minister and his cabinet. Plagued with structural dysfunctions such as the “vanished pension” problem, amakudari, and “politics and money”, support for the Abe administration has dipped to an all time low of 32%. Now all eyes are set, on the results of this election, on what the people have to say.

The July Upper House Election is parable to the U.S. Midterm Election. It will be an evaluation of the state of governance since the last General Election two years ago. More specifically speaking, it will be the report card for Koizumi’s 5-year term and its continuation in the form of the Abe administration.

One cannot pass a judgment on Koizumi’s term without commenting on his “structural reforms”. Despite his advocacy for and continual emphasis on implementing structural reforms, Koizumi missed what should be the most crucial of them all−fundamental tax reform. The so-called “pension reform that will bring peace of mind for the next hundred years” ended up merely as a slogan for media publicity, with no true resolutions to tackle the root of the problem. This is reflected by a Social Insurance Agency almost paralyzed by the accumulation of “vanished pension records” and the erosion of social security premiums. Even if one focuses on the structural reforms that actually took place, close examination will show that policies were formulated without taking into consideration the part-and-parcel effects of possible increases in social disparity. As a result, social disparity widened as policies were not equipped with countermeasures to mitigate such rising disparity. Despite overall economic recovery, the average Japanese is less well off than five years ago.

September 2006, the kantei changed owners. Koizumi left the office but unfortunately, those fundamental problems did not leave with him. The Abe administration so far can be summarized in one phrase−negligence of Japanese people’s real living concerns. Despite the knowledge of persisting socio-economic problems, Abe was unable to put aside his indulgence in constitutional reform and focus on solving urgent issues at hand. For example, the problem of mismatched and missing pension records was first brought up by the DPJ about a year ago but failed to receive immediate attention. It has been left unresolved, only to be picked up not too long ago under mounting public discontent. However up till this point, the ruling party has yet been able to provide a well-thought rescue plan.

On the other hand, we−the DJP, put ourselves in the public’s shoes and think on their behalf. Borrowing former U.S. President Clinton’s line, we “put the people’s lives first” when structuring our policies. Any form of wastage of our taxpayer’s money, be it tax or social security premiums, should be checked and eliminated. For example, an overhaul of the current tax and social security system is critical. The payment of social insurance premiums and tax filing should be brought under-one-roof. Simplification and unification of the process will prevent blunders like the “vanished pension” problem from happening again. In closing the social disparity gap, any increase in consumption tax revenue should be solely used for social security purposes.

Abe has always been talking about “breaking away from the post-war regime”. I can’t help but find this ironic. The stereotypical “post-war regime” comes in the form of the long continued LDP rule. If we do need to break away from the “post-war regime”, then the first thing we need to do is depart from LDP governance. After all, almost all current problems we face, with regard to social security, amakudari, dangou, “politics and money”, fiscal deficit, and so on, have developed under the LDP government.

The results of this coming Upper House Election will influence the future development of Japanese politics to a degree previously unthought-of. Since 1994, when the LDP regained power by forming a coalition with its greatest opposition−the Social Democratic Party of Japan, the LDP has dished out all sorts of tactics to desperately stay in power. As the opposition changed, the coalition partner changed as well. And nothing can reflect its desperation more than selecting as unique a character as Koizumi to lead the government in 2001. This scramble to hold on to power, placed in medical scenarios, can be described as a patient on life-support system. This time around, the possibility of the LDP not being able to retain its majority in the Upper House is getting higher and higher. Just like the Social Insurance Agency, the LDP may face the fate of being forced to “terminate its life-support system”.

(Translated by Katharynn Lee)